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Norwegian Prime Minister: Donald Trump Obsessed with Nobel Peace Prize in Greenland Texts

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NewsFeed

Norway PM Jonas Gahr Store rebuked US President Trump after Trump texted that since Norway “decided not to” give him the Nobel Peace Prize, he’s no longer obliged to “think purely of Peace” and repeated his aim of US control of Greenland. Store said the prize is decided by an independent committee.

The Impact of Warner’s Cutbacks: Uncovering the Bigger Picture.

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MBW Reacts is a series of analytical commentaries from Music Business Worldwide written in response to major recent entertainment events or news stories. Only MBW+ subscribers have unlimited access to these articles. The below article originally appeared in Tim Ingham’s latest ‘Tim’s Take’ email, issued exclusively to MBW+ subscribers.


It’s no secret that Warner Music Group – like Universal Music Group and others in the business – has significantly cut costs in the past couple of years.

What’s less appreciated by many in the industry is how long this process has been going on at WMG, how large it is, and how visible its impact is becoming.

Example: WMG now has no dedicated recorded music head in either the UK or Germany – the world’s third and fourth largest recorded music territories, per IFPI data.

(UK boss Tony Harlow exited last year, as did the duo who oversaw Warner’s German/Central Europe outfit: Doreen Schimk and Fabian Drebe. Warner Music’s combined Central Europe and Benelux business unit is now run by Netherlands-based Niels Walboomers.)

Warner Music also has no in situ recorded music boss in another Top 10 territory, Canada: New York-based Eric Wong leads its Canadian operation from the US (alongside his two additional roles!). Former WM Canada boss, Kristen Burke, exited in October.

These are just a handful of significant changes that have sprung from a three-part restructuring program launched after Robert Kyncl became WMG CEO in January 2023:

  • In March 2023Kyncl announced WMG was laying off 270 people, a move which slashed $50M from the firm’s annual pre-tax costs;
  • In September 2024, Warner confirmed it was cutting a further 750 employees, the majority from its ‘owned and operated media’ subsidiaries, resulting in additional annual cost savings of $260M;
  • And in July 2025, Kyncl announced a further $300M of annual cost-savings, of which $170M would be achieved via layoffs. (Coincidentally, $170M is also the amount WMG expects to pay out in severance as a result of these changes.)

WMG didn’t reveal a specific number of roles that would be eliminated in its 2025 round – possibly because it would have been large enough to gobsmack.

Based on what we know from 2023 and 2024’s WMG cutbacks (and their average per-employee severance), I’d estimate 2025’s round will result in the loss of around 1,000 additional roles.

To recap: ~1,000 roles cut in 2023-24, and a further ~1,000 targeted in the 2025 plan.

These cuts have concentrated in WMG’s label business: through the program to date, 91% of redundancy expense has landed in Warner’s Recorded Music division, with 2% in publishing, and 7% in Corporate.



WMG’s most recent annual report confirms that the 2023 and 2024 restructuring plans are now both “substantially complete” – i.e. the ~1,000 roles earmarked for redundancy in stages one and two have already been extinguished.

As for the additional estimated ~1,000 job cuts mapped out in 2025?

Over half the associated severance – $90M of $170M – was paid before the end of September 2025, suggesting Warner is largely done.

The impact of the restructuring is starting to show up in WMG’s public numbers.

At the close of its FY 2025 (September), Warner counted 5,500 employees around the world, according to its annual SEC report.

That was down by 700 people versus the equivalent figure in 2022.



Factoring in new hires, I expect Warner’s three-pronged restructuring program will ultimately reduce total staff volume by about 25% – from 6,200 employees before Kyncl’s arrival in 2023, closer to 4,700 by the end of this year.

Not all of that headcount reduction will be achieved through layoffs; some will come from asset disposals.

As I’ve written before, Warner’s recent sale of Songkick to Suno jettisoned 25 staff. Other employees exited when WMG offloaded its non-core media assets including UPROXX in 2024.

A further asset sale appears imminent: recent WMG filings confirm that merch platform EMP is being “held for sale” by the major.

(MBW first told you in August that Warner was looking to sell EMP, complete with a $70 million write-down in the asset’s value.)


Why the cuts – and where’s the money going?

Throughout WMG’s three-year cutbacks program, Robert Kyncl has insisted that – in addition to being accretive to margin – Warner would look to reinvest a portion of the savings into A&R.

The numbers show Kyncl is coming good on this promise.

In FY 2025, according to its SEC filings, Warner Music Group spent USD $2.34 billion on ‘A&R’ across records and publishing (this figure includes royalties and advances paid to talent, plus studio costs).

That A&R figure was up 8%, or by $175 million, versus the prior year.

It was also up by $382 million vs. the equivalent figure in the year before Kyncl joined WMG (FY 2022).



Most importantly to Warner’s shareholders, WMG’s restructuring program has also helped drive up the firm’s margins.

In FY 2022, WMG’s Adjusted OIBDA (Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortization) represented 19% of its annual revenues. By FY 2025, that figure had climbed to 22%.

An OIBDA margin in the mid-twenties will be next on investors’ wish list.


The bigger picture – and a platform for growth

Of course, Warner isn’t alone in making cutbacks to its workforce. Multiple industry players are sharpening their focus on profitability – while taking better advantage of technological efficiencies, and recalibrating resource towards high-growth markets.

Universal Music Group, as mentioned, has its own ‘realignment’ program underway, designed to produce EUR €250M (around USD $290M) in annual cost savings. UMG’s Boyd Muir confirmed last summer that UMG expected to be around two-thirds of the way through this two-phase plan by the end of calendar 2025.

Elsewhere, BMG boss Thomas Coesfeld has been open about restructuring headcount in the past few years – while significantly improving profitability.

Efficiency-seeking moves can also be seen at firms like Believe, which just this week eliminated the CEO role at key subsidiary TuneCore. (Following the departure of long-time TuneCore boss, Andreea Gleeson, the DIY platform will now be CEO-less – overseen by Believe’s global head of music, Romain Vivien.)

Warner, though, is arguably making the most visible reductions, and the most material cuts in terms of percentage of total workforce affected.

Far from being a barrier to growth, this rapid restructuring under Robert Kyncl could yet prove to be a launchpad for expansion.

Warner can now look to drive topline revenue growth through inorganic means – without risking the dilution of its margin to levels that might trouble public investors.

Part of this inorganic revenue drive will, no doubt, come from catalog acquisitions via WMG’s $1.2 billion JV with Bain Capital.

But, as I’ve previously pointed out, Warner also has a serious issue on its hands when it comes to servicing independents – with ADA struggling to compete with the scale of The Orchard (and AWALat Sony, and Virgin Music Group at UMG.

Robert Kyncl has previously expressed a preference to “build” rather than “buy” WMG’s independent distribution operation. And in a service-based (rather than rights-ownership-based) field, there are arguments for why this makes sense.

But with WMG‘s turnover now roughly half the size of UMG’s – and UMG set to swallow Downtown/FUGA in the weeks ahead – is now the time for Kyncl’s team to make an acquisitive move in the expanding indie space?

Obvious targets for such a swoop would include ONErpm, UnitedMastersSymphonic, and the fast-growing TooLost.

But I heard a whisper over the festive break that Bruno Guez’s Revelator was attracting heavy acquisitive interest. It could be a good fit for Warner.

Revelator would come with a respected tech stack that WMG could ingest and develop.

It also specializes in FUGA-esque white label services for indie labels – a potential turn-key solution for a major music company looking to rival FUGA when/if it falls under Virgin Music Group’s umbrella.


In calendar Q3, Warner’s quarterly turnover (seasonally boosted by Oasis tour merch sales) was around USD $1.3 billion ahead of HYBE’s – and around $1.0 billion behind Sony Music Group’s, according to MBW calculations.

Meanwhile, Warner will be hyper-aware of its status in the global industry pecking order right now.

As I reported in NovemberWMG is nudging nearer to the day when its revenues are, in real terms, closer to those of HYBE than they are to Sony’s music rights business.

This year, HYBE will manage one of the most hotly-anticipated (and hotly-monetized) live shows of all time: the return of BTS after four years away, via a 79-date world tour.

In 2019, Michael Rapino, CEO of Live Nationsaid that a billion people (!) had visited his company’s platforms to try and grab tickets to BTS’s then-concert run.

I’m not fully convinced an eighth of the world’s population were crazed about J-Hope and co (there would have been plenty of bots – and plenty of K-pop megafans willing to use them).

But it certainly sets the scene for what will be one of the worldwide industry’s biggest blockbuster money-makers in 2026.

With a supposed ‘independent’ in HYBE pulling the strings, expect plenty more discussion about the definition of ‘major’ music companies and ‘non-major’ music companies in the months ahead – and where both Warner and HYBE fit on the spectrum.

Music Business Worldwide

Trump reaffirms commitment to imposing tariffs on Greenland, EU promises to defend its interests

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AFP via Getty Images Composit image of Donald Trump and Kaja Kallas. Both are looking towards the camera, Kallas has two microphones in front of her whereas Trump is outside wearing a navy coat and a red tie.AFP via Getty Images

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said the bloc has “no interest to pick a fight, but we will hold our ground”.

Donald Trump has vowed to “100%” follow through on his threat to impose tariffs on European countries who oppose his demand to take control of Greenland.

European allies have rallied around Greenland’s sovereignty. Denmark’s foreign minister emphasised the US president cannot threaten his way to ownership of the semi-autonomous Danish territory.

UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper reiterated the UK’s position that the future of Greenland is for “Greenlanders and for the Danes alone” to decide.

On Monday, Trump declined to rule out the use of force and insisted he would press ahead with the threatened tariffs on goods arriving in the US from the UK and seven other Nato-allied countries.

Asked by NBC News if he would use force to seize Greenland, Trump answered: “No comment”.

The US president said he would charge Britain a 10% tariff “on any and all goods” sent to the US from 1 February, increasing to 25% from 1 June, until a deal is reached for Washington to purchase Greenland from Denmark.

Trump said the same would apply to Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland – all of whom are members of the defence alliance Nato which was founded in 1949.

Asked if he will follow through on the tariff threat, Mr Trump told NBC News: “I will, 100%.”

AFP via Getty Images  People walk past Greenlandic flags outside a shop in the city centreAFP via Getty Images

Trump added: “Europe ought to focus on the war with Russia and Ukraine because, frankly, you see what that’s gotten them… That’s what Europe should focus on – not Greenland.”

Denmark has warned that US military action in Greenland would spell the end of Nato. In recent days, Greenland has received support from European members of the alliance – some even sent a handful of troops to Greenland last week in a move seen as symbolic.

However, Trump followed that deployment with an announcement to impose tariffs on the eight Nato allies.

Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said that Europe had to show President Trump tariff threats were “not the way forward”.

“We have red lines that can’t be crossed,” he told Sky News. “You can’t threaten your way to ownership of Greenland. I have no intention of escalating this situation.”

Nato secretary general Mark Rutte said the alliance will keep working with Denmark and Greenland on the security of the Arctic.

The European Union is to hold an emergency summit in Brussels for its leaders on Thursday where they will discuss how to respond to Trump’s latest threat to take over Greenland.

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said the bloc has “no interest to pick a fight, but we will hold our ground”.

“But trades threats are not the way to go about this,” Kallas added. “Sovereignty is not for trade.”

It comes as text exchanges between Trump and the Norwegian prime minister were released – showing that on Sunday the US president blamed Norway for the fact he didn’t get the Nobel Peace Prize.

In his reply – seen by the BBC – Jonas Gahr Støre explained that an independent committee, not the government of Norway, awards the prize which last October went to Venezuela’s opposition leader María Corina Machado.

“Norway’s position on Greenland is clear. Greenland is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Norway fully supports the Kingdom of Denmark on this matter,” Støre added.

Trump also addressed the text message exchange in Monday’s interview and said: “Norway totally controls it [the Nobel Prize] despite what they say.

“They like to say they have nothing to do with it, but they have everything to do with it.”

Client Challenge: Overcoming Obstacles to Success

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SwimSwam’s Women’s Top 100 for 2026: Rankings #100-91

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By Madeline Folsom on SwimSwam

Welcome to the SwimSwam Top 100 Swimmers of 2026: Women’s Edition. This is our outlook on the top 100 swimmers to watch globally in 2026.

Like most non-Olympic even-numbered years, the world of swimming will be scattered across the globe, with no real single meet to weigh the medals from most. That means times will rule the day in the 2026 rankings, which makes some things easier and some things harder.
The principles for ranking:
  • Trajectory
  • Age
  • Performance in 2023-2024-2025 (more recent results weighted more heavily)
  • Anomalies to trajectories (one bad year doesn’t mean a swimmer isn’t still one of the best in the world, if it was pretty isolated or illness may have impacted performance)
  • Versatility. A swimmer who might be #3 in the world in three events could leap a one-trick pony who is #1 or #2 in their best event and outside the top 10 in their next-best event.
  • Competitive Atmosphere. A swimmer ranked #9 in the world in a more competitive event could be ranked higher than a finalist in a less competitive event.
We start with data, and then debate, massage, re-rank, re-rank again, and eventually wind up with some vision of a top 100 that makes sense to our collective hivemind.

Note: we’ve excluded swimmers who have no sign of being in the pool in 2026, and hedged on others like Sarah Sjostrom that we expect to be back but don’t really know how they’ll be. These ranks always wind up a bit wonky because there’s so much opacity to the situations.

#100 Katie Grimes, United States (2025 Rank: 13) – Katie Grimes has the potential to sit near the top of this list, but her 2025 year was underwhelming at best. After winning the silver medal in the women’s 400 IM at the major meets in 2022, 2023, and 2024, she seemed to be the clear favorite for silver in 2025. She moved to Virginia in January of last year and struggled at the NCAA Championships, missing the top three in all of her events. Those struggles continued as she qualified for just one event at the 2025 World Championships, the 400 IM, where she ultimately finished 6th, five seconds off her lifetime best. Her time ended the year 15th in the World which was her only top-40 ranking. She will be looking for a major bounce back this year, which is why she couldn’t be left off the list. She was a priority four selection for the United States Pan Pacs team with the 3rd fastest time in the country in the 400 IM, and in order to swim finals, she will need to be top two among United States swimmers.

#99 Louise Hansson, Sweden (2025 Rank: 68) – Sweden’s Louise Hansson was one of their top swimmers in 2025 after Sarah Sjostrom took the year off to have a baby. The 29-year-old was a finals threat in both of her events coming into the World Championships, but she missed earning 2nd swims in both, finishing 18th in the 50 fly and 22nd in the 100 fly. She had a strong split on the women’s 400 medley relay, swimming 56.92 to help the team finish 11th, only three tenths off the 56.62 she swam on the relay in Paris. Hansson bounced back for SC Euros, earning a bronze medal in the 100 fly (55.69), a 5th place in the 50 fly (25.13) and a 7th place in the 50 back (26.51). She also has huge relay duties for Sweden, and since this year’s major meet will be the European Championships, she will likely make a big impact.

#98 Barbora Seemanova, Czech Republic (2025 Rank: 61) – Barbora Seemanova had a big jump in 2025, ranking 61st in the SwimSwam Top-100. She performed well at the 2024 European Championships, and qualified for finals in the 200 freestyle in Paris. She saw a shift in her events this year, swimming the 100 and 200 freestyle and dropping the 100 fly and 200 IM from her lineup. At Worlds, she finished 5th in the 200 free in a season best 1:55.20, just over a tenth off her lifetime best 1:55.12 from May of 2024. She also earned a semifinals spot in the 100 free, finishing 10th overall in 53.72. She finished the year ranked 25th in the 100 free and 8th in the 200 free. Most of her best times are only two years old, and she wasn’t far off them at Worlds. She is a serious medal threat at this summer’s European Championships in the 200 freestyle, with only one of the four swimmers ahead of her coming from Europe.

#97 Erin Gallagher, South Africa (2025 Rank: NR) – One of the biggest things that happened in swimming this year was the addition of stroke 50s to the Olympic lineup. This has put a huge emphasis on stroke 50 swimmers and pushed them onto this list when they previously might have sat off it. South Africa’s Erin Gallagher finished 8th in the 50 fly at the World Championships, but her semifinals personal best time of 25.39 finished the year tied for 4th overall with Kate Douglass of the United States. Gallagher also finished the year at 17th in the women’s 100 fly, an incredibly deep event right now, after finishing 13th at Worlds. She is a solid medal threat in the 50 and 100 fly at Commonwealth, especially if she continues to improve. South Africa will also race at Pan Pacs, but 50 fly competition will be steeper.

#96 Rikako Ikee, Japan (2025 Rank: 95) – After being diagnosed with Leukemia in 2019, Rikako Ikee made her return to swimming following the pandemic and has been slowly returning to her 2017 – 2018 form. At the 2025 World Championships, she swam 57.89 to finish 14th overall. She was about seven tenths off the 57.03 she swam last year, but her prelims time of 57.75 was faster than the 57.79 she swam in semifinals at the 2024 Paris Olympics. She also qualified for the semifinals in the 50 fly, where swam 25.67 to finish 11th overall. Her season best time of 25.41 in the 50 fly finished the year ranked 6th in the world, just behind Gallagher and Douglass. In the 100 fly, she was 19th in 57.63. At just 25, Ikee could still see a return to her 25.33/54.08 from from the 2018 season.

#95 Amalie Smith, Great Britain (2025 Rank: NR) – Our first junior swimmer on this year’s list is Great Britain’s Amalie Smith. Smith turned 16 in August, and became the fastest European Junior swimmer ever in the SCM 400 IM in December. Her swim of 4:30.64 broke the benchmark standard of 4:31.06, which was established in 2016. At the 2025 World Junior Championships, which swam days before her 16th birthday, she won silver medals in both the 200 and 400 IM, setting personal bests of 2:11.07 and 4:35.49 in both. She saw incredible improvement this year, dropping more than five seconds in the 200 IM and almost 13 seconds in the 400 IM long course. She ended 2025 ranked 28th in the 200 IM and 9th in the 400 IM and she will be a serious contender at the European Championships and the Commonwealth Games for a medal, particularly in the 400 IM.

#94 McKenzie Siroky, United States (2025 Rank: NR) – McKenzie Siroky’s swimming journey has been far from typical. Originally committing to play Division I Hockey, Siroky continued swimming, winning high school titles in the breaststroke events and breaking the Michigan state record in the 100 breast. In February of 2023, she decided to commit to Tennessee for the fall of 2024 after taking a gap year to qualify for the Olympic Trials. She did, and in June of 2024, she finished 7th in the 100 breaststroke. This summer, she qualified for her first international team in the 50 breaststroke after winning a swim off. At Worlds, she finished 17th in the event, touching in 30.80 to add about eight tenths from her lifetime best 30.05, which was the 6th fastest time in the world last year. Last summer was her first full summer of training, so she could be looking at some huge drops this summer, as she has already qualified for the U.S. Pan Pacs team.

#93 Moesha Johnson, Australia (2025 Rank: 90) – Let’s be clear. If this was an Open Water ranking, Australia’s Moesha Johnson would be the undisputed number one. This is not an open water ranking, however, so she falls back to 93rd. Open Water is her focus, but she still races the distance events in the pool. At the 2025 World Championships, she swept the OW events, and raced the 1500 and 800 freestyles in the pool. She finished 6th in the 1500, touching in 16:02.45, a four second add from the 15:58.53 she swam in April, which was the 7th fastest time in the world. In the 800, she finished 12th, just missing a finals swim with her 8:30.85. Her season best in the event stood at 8:25.42 from the Australia Open, also in April. Johnson will likely race the distance events at Pan Pacs in 2026, and she will be the favorite in the open water 10k.

#92 Minna Abraham, Hungary (2025 Rank: NR) – One of the top 200 freestylers in Europe, Hungary’s Minna Abraham finished 2025 tied for 17th in the world in the long course 200 freestyle with the 1:56.03 she swam at the U23 European Championships with countrymate Nikolett Padar. At the World Championships, she added about seven tenths to swim 1:56.70 in the semifinals to finish 10th overall, two spots out of the final. She had a much stronger performance at the 2025 SC Euros, which is a better indication of her performance in 2026, since this summer’s long course Euros will likely be her focus meet. She won a silver medal in the 200 free, setting a personal best 1:51.47. She also picked up 8th in the 100 free after breaking the Hungarian record in prelims, and 5th in the 400 free. She set new personal bests in all three events and could see similar improvements this long course season.

#91 Sienna Toohey, Australia (2025 Rank: NR) – Sienna Toohey is the 2nd junior swimmer on this portion of the list. She has made her impact on the world breaststroke rankings, but more than that, she is growing into a strong breaststroke leg for an Australian relay that has been searching for breaststrokers. Toohey is just 16 and has been breaking national age records in the breaststroke events for years now. She made her senior international debut at the 2025 World Championships, where she finished 22nd in the 100 breaststroke in 1:07.24 and 13th in the 50 breast in a personal best 30.58. At the Australian Swimming Trials, she swam 1:06.55 in the 100, which ended the year ranked 18th in the world. The swim also marked a half-second drop from the 1:07.01 she swam in 2024, which is a good sign for her continued improvement through 2026 and Pan Pacs and the Commonwealth Games.

Read the full story on SwimSwam: SwimSwam’s Top 100 For 2026: Women’s #100-91

Dozens Killed in Train Crash in Southern Spain

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new video loaded: Train Crash in Southern Spain Kills Dozens

A train crash in southern Spain involving two trains killed dozens on Sunday. The cause of the crash, the deadliest in Spain since 2013, was still being investigated on Monday.

By Nader Ibrahim

January 19, 2026

Smallest Ergonomic Horizontal Mouse in the World for Travel

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Even a device as simple as a computer mouse still has plenty of room for improvement. Modern versions are becoming lighter, more ergonomic, and often even look nothing like their traditional counterparts. The NanoFlow i2 Air incorporates some revolutionary features and is now available for backing on Kickstarter.

It is claimed to be the world’s smallest horizontal mouse, measuring 31 × 39 × 75 mm (1.22 × 1.54 × 2.95 in) and weighing just 35 g (1.25 oz), which makes it smaller than your earbuds case. It takes up very little space, fits easily in a pocket, and can be used on almost any surface.

The mouse was designed specifically for modern, flexible work conditions and is targeted at laptop users, digital nomads and travelers. And if you need to work in quiet places or late at night, you’ll likely appreciate how quiet the mouse’s clicks are – just under 20 dB.

The mouse is available in color choices of black and white

Livaro Tech

One of the main goals behind this invention is to reduce wrist strain caused by traditional computer mice. While those are designed to be pushed against flat surfaces, the NanoFlow i2 Air uses forward-balance fingertip control. This design basically removes unnecessary palm contact, so force and control come from the fingertips rather than the palm.

As a result, muscle load is reduced and the wrist is placed in a more natural, relaxed position. The mouse has anti-slip rubber grips on both ends, allowing the fingers to maintain a steady hold. It also features an electroplated shell for easy cleaning.

Like other horizontal mice, the NanoFlow i2 Air is designed to reduce wrist strain
Like other horizontal mice, the NanoFlow i2 Air is designed to reduce wrist strain

Livaro Tech

The mouse is claimed to perform well on nearly any surface – from small coffee tables to sofas, airplane trays, or even your own lap – so any location can become a temporary workplace when needed, as long as you can balance your laptop there. Thanks to its ergonomic design and compact size, this device can be used on much smaller surfaces than a traditional mouse.

A one-hour fast charge via USB-C reportedly provides up to 40 hours of usage. The device can be still used while charging, allowing you to keep working without interruptions. It also features a smart standby mode that automatically turns the device off when not in use.

The device measures 31 × 39 × 75 mm (1.22 × 1.54 × 2.95 in)
The device measures 31 × 39 × 75 mm (1.22 × 1.54 × 2.95 in)

Livaro Tech

Supporting both Bluetooth and 2.4G wireless connections, the mouse can connect to two devices at the same time and instantly switch between them, which is a great feature for multitasking between a laptop and a tablet. The NanoFlow i2 Air doesn’t require any drivers and is compatible with Windows, macOS, Linux, iPadOS, and Android devices that support Bluetooth or USB receivers.

The product is currently designed for right-handed users only and is available in color choices of black and white.

Assuming the Kickstarter campaign is successful, shipment is expected to begin at the end of March. Early backers can purchase the product for US$79, with a planned retail price of $99.

NanoFlow i2 Air — The Smallest Horizontal Mouse

Source: Kickstarter

Note: New Atlas may earn commission from purchases made via links.

Helen Cai appointed as CFO of Barrick Mining

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Barrick Mining names Helen Cai as CFO

Is the US economy truly strong after a year of Trump? | Analysis of Donald Trump’s Impact on the Economy

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Over the past year, United States President Donald Trump has unleashed a slew of policies that have upended businesses, supply chains and jobs.

Yet the US economy seems to be growing at a healthy clip, and the unemployment rate is in a safe zone.

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The reality, experts say, is that the stock market boom has helped to mask deeper underlying problems in the economy.

Since taking office, Trump has imposed a range of tariffs on countries, including key trading partners, leading to predictions of inflation skyrocketing, manufacturing screeching to a halt and unemployment soaring.

None of those scenarios came true.

Inflation, while above the Federal Reserve’s target, was a modest 2.7 percent in December.

The unemployment rate was relatively low, at 4.4 percent, last month. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025, the fastest in two years.

“The shock and awe we anticipated just didn’t materialise,” Bernard Yaros, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, told Al Jazeera.

Yaros said the limited fallout could be attributed to the relative lack of retaliation by other countries and the stock market rally that quickly followed Trump’s dialling back of the steepest tariffs announced on “liberation day“.

Since Trump’s April 2 announcement, the stock market, which is heavily weighted towards the “magnificent seven” tech companies, has risen nearly 30 percent, boosting Americans’ paper wealth and encouraging households to loosen their purse strings.

Gains in net wealth have driven almost one-third of the rise in consumer spending since the COVID-19 pandemic, Oxford Economics said in a research briefing in October.

At the same time, the gains have not been distributed evenly.

The top 10 percent of earners are now estimated to account for roughly half of all spending, the highest proportion since officials began compiling data in 1989, according to Moody’s Analytics.

“The gains are going a lot to people in higher income brackets – they are the ones who have the stock portfolios – and are going to people in sectors and occupations tied to AI,” Marcus Noland, executive vice president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Al Jazeera.

“But, these numbers mask the unevenness in the growth in this economy.”

Net decline of workers

A careful parsing of the data reveals that unevenness. For instance, despite the impressive GDP numbers, that growth is not being accompanied by an increase in hiring.

While hospitality and healthcare added workers last year, retail, manufacturing and construction – sectors that rely heavily on migrants – all shed jobs.

As a result of the Trump administration’s mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and tightening of legal migration pathways, the US last year experienced negative net migration for the first time in at least half a century, according to a Brookings Institution analysis.

“And through this very public and brutal way of going about deportations, they have discouraged illegal immigration, but also intimidated immigrants in the US,” Noland said, adding that the US workforce is projected to see a net decline of two million workers this year.

The “bifurcation” in the US economy is also being felt across the business world, with smaller companies lacking the deep pockets to stockpile inventories or negotiate with suppliers in the face of increased tariffs.

“The surge in policy uncertainty this year has had an outsize effect on smaller firms,” Oxford Economics said in a November report.

These firms are also seeing little benefit from the boom in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry since revenues have been driven by capital-intensive chip manufacturing and cloud services.

While AI proponents believe the world is on the cusp of huge gains in productivity that could dramatically raise living standards, there are concerns about large numbers of people being put out of work.

“This could be the new norm – jobless growth. That’s one reason people are not feeling so great,” Yaros said.

“While a lot of hype about AI and productivity benefits from AI are still to come, we think that is a risk to the labour market if it continues to hold back hiring.”

Investigation launched by DOJ as Minnesota protesters disrupt church services: The curious case of the ICE pastor

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The U.S. Department of Justice said Sunday it is investigating a group of protesters in Minnesota who disrupted services at a church where a local official with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement apparently serves as a pastor.

A livestreamed video posted on the Facebook page of Black Lives Matter Minnesota, one of the protest’s organizers, shows a group of people interrupting services at the Cities Church in St. Paul by chanting “ICE out” and “Justice for Renee Good.” The 37-year-old mother of three was fatally shot by an ICE agent in Minneapolis earlier this month amid a surge in federal immigration enforcement activities.

The protesters allege that one of the church’s pastors — David Easterwood — also leads the local ICE field office overseeing the operations that have involved violent tactics and illegal arrests.

U.S. Department of Justice Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon said her agency is investigating federal civil rights violations “by these people desecrating a house of worship and interfering with Christian worshippers.”

“A house of worship is not a public forum for your protest! It is a space protected from exactly such acts by federal criminal and civil laws!” she said on social media.

Attorney General Pam Bondi also weighed in on social media, saying that any violations of federal law would be prosecuted.

Nekima Levy Armstrong, who participated in the protest and leads the local grassroots civil rights organization Racial Justice Network, dismissed the potential DOJ investigation as a sham and a distraction from federal agents’ actions in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

“When you think about the federal government unleashing barbaric ICE agents upon our community and all the harm that they have caused, to have someone serving as a pastor who oversees these ICE agents, is almost unfathomable to me,” said Armstrong, who added she is an ordained reverend. “If people are more concerned about someone coming to a church on a Sunday and disrupting business as usual than they are about the atrocities that we are experiencing in our community, then they need to check their theology and the need to check their hearts.”

The website of St. Paul-based Cities Church lists David Easterwood as a pastor, and his personal information appears to match that of the David Easterwood identified in court filings as the acting director of the ICE St. Paul field office. Easterwood appeared alongside DHS Secretary Kristi Noem at a Minneapolis press conference last October.

Cities Church did not respond to a phone call or emailed request for comment Sunday evening, and Easterwood’s personal contact information could not immediately be located.

Easterwood did not lead the part of the service that was livestreamed, and it was unclear if he was present at the church Sunday.

In a Jan. 5 court filing, Easterwood defended ICE’s tactics in Minnesota such as swapping license plates and spraying protesters with chemical irritants. He wrote that federal agents were experiencing increased threats and aggression and crowd control devices like flash-bang grenades were important to protect against violent attacks. He testified that he was unaware of agents “knowingly targeting or retaliating against peaceful protesters or legal observers with less lethal munitions and/or crowd control devices.”

“Agitators aren’t just targeting our officers. Now they’re targeting churches, too,” the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency stated. “They’re going from hotel to hotel, church to church, hunting for federal law enforcement who are risking their lives to protect Americans.”

Black Lives Matter Minnesota co-founder Monique Cullars-Doty said that the DOJ’s prosecution was misguided.

“If you got a head — a leader in a church — that is leading and orchestrating ICE raids, my God, what has the world come to?” Cullars-Doty said. “We can’t sit back idly and watch people go and be led astray.”